I’ve been up and down with my thoughts on Marathon, Bungie’s new extraction shooter currently in its Closed Alpha. I’m not an extraction player at all, but I’ve had some good runs and some bad runs. Sticking around for the long term though remains a tough prospect to see.
But I think there may be a shorter-term problem, one that has implications for its actual launch. And I’m a bit concerned about it.
Tracking the playercount of the Closed Alpha on Steam, I’m noticing something. No, I don’t care about the actual numbers at this point. This is a Closed Alpha. We know probably 80%+ of code applications have been denied. It’s too early to extrapolate things like Open Beta or launch figures that will arrive in the coming months.
But what I’m noticing is the trendline. The peak at launch is an obvious spike, up to 7K (though again, the specific number doesn’t matter). However, Thursday night dropped to less than half that. Then, as the weekend has started, Friday night lost more players, and the game is approaching less than a third of its initial players on launch day after just 72 hours. If this is the case for Saturday and Sunday night, that’s not great.